The new numbers give the Ducks a 1.11 chance to make the playoffs based on their latest victories.
That is all mathematically speaking.
If you look at it beyond the math you will see why our chances are higher than that. Firstly, the Ducks are streaking (four straight), They have played 60 minute efforts in each of the past four wins, out of our toughest opponents (including those higher than us in the standings) the Ducks have defeated 3 of the top 8 teams in the west, Teemu got his 600th. Generally, things are looking up for the Ducks.
It isn't over, one win can put the nail in the coffin, but the Ducks are riding the momentum train at the moment and they're riding in style. They fought through key injuries and suspensions to win games (Getzlaf, Ryan, Wisniewski).
Up ahead we do have some challenging teams, but the Ducks found a way to defeat some pretty hot teams.
Our next game vs. Calgary cannot be lost if the Ducks want a chance to sneak in. They can't even go to overtime. The Ducks are 7 points out of the race and Calgary is the closest team to us standings wise.
The Ducks are going to have to keep up the same game style especially since they will play Vancouver and a back to back vs. Los Angeles.
But, the Ducks were on the Brink, and they have shown they will not go down without one hell of a fight.
Teemu Selanne put it perfectly, "As long as we have time, He have hope"
Showing posts with label hockey. Show all posts
Showing posts with label hockey. Show all posts
Monday, March 22, 2010
Thursday, March 18, 2010
Ducks-Blackhawks 4-2
Who saw that one coming?
Few would put money on the Ducks to beat San Jose, few would put money on them to beat Chicago. But to beat both? The economy is a bit too troubled these days to risk money on such crazy ventures.
But the Ducks did it. They stepped up in both games (like they should have been doing all along) and beat the two best teams in the Western Conference to, in a sense give themselves a chance to pull off what a couple days ago was almost impossible (0.4% chance to make the playoffs).
The Ducks played the Chicago Blackhawks last night on St. Patrick's day (also Bobby Ryan's birthday). Playing what could have been the most essential game on the schedule.
And they rose to the occasion once again.
The win came without Anaheim's top line center, Ryan Getzlaf, who, unlike Selanne, was not cleared to play. But, as required at this time of year, the Ducks stepped up their game and gave a winning effort.
Bobby Ryan scored two goals that night (30, 31) making it back to back 30 goal seasons for the young scorer. Only two other Ducks have that distinction and they are widely considered the team's all time best forwards (Teemu Selanne and Paul Kariya). He is also the first Duck to get back to back 30 goal seasons in a player's rookie and sophomore year.
Teemu Selanne did not reach number 600 (though not for lack of trying) but he will get another opprotunity to do so friday vs. the Islanders. In the meantime, Todd Marchant picked up a shorthanded goal on a broken play by the Blackhawks powerplay. Then Saku Koivu scored the eventual game winner, with Bobby Ryan putting the puck in the empty net in the final minute of the game. Hiller made 38 saves in another stellar performance.
The game wasn’t all smiles. In the third period James Wisniewski laid a vicious high hit on Brent Seabrook that left him dazed and caused him to collapse and left him injured. It was the second time a vicious hit took out a Blackhawks player (Ovechkin on Campbell) from the line up.
Wisniewski now faces a potential suspension for the his since Ovechkin who laid a similar hit received a two game suspension. Wisniewski also fought with former teammate Nik Boyton.
The Ducks will go on to play the New York Islanders on Friday, one of the “easier” games ahead of the schedule. The remaining games will not be easy by any stretch of the imagination, but these two wins certainly will not do anything to hurt their confidence (just a reminder the 3 games up ahead we cannot lose are vs. Calgary, St. Louis, and Dallas not even an OT).
Top performers:
Jonas Hiller 38 saves,
Bobby Ryan 2 goals
Koivu GWG
Few would put money on the Ducks to beat San Jose, few would put money on them to beat Chicago. But to beat both? The economy is a bit too troubled these days to risk money on such crazy ventures.
But the Ducks did it. They stepped up in both games (like they should have been doing all along) and beat the two best teams in the Western Conference to, in a sense give themselves a chance to pull off what a couple days ago was almost impossible (0.4% chance to make the playoffs).
The Ducks played the Chicago Blackhawks last night on St. Patrick's day (also Bobby Ryan's birthday). Playing what could have been the most essential game on the schedule.
And they rose to the occasion once again.
The win came without Anaheim's top line center, Ryan Getzlaf, who, unlike Selanne, was not cleared to play. But, as required at this time of year, the Ducks stepped up their game and gave a winning effort.
Bobby Ryan scored two goals that night (30, 31) making it back to back 30 goal seasons for the young scorer. Only two other Ducks have that distinction and they are widely considered the team's all time best forwards (Teemu Selanne and Paul Kariya). He is also the first Duck to get back to back 30 goal seasons in a player's rookie and sophomore year.
Teemu Selanne did not reach number 600 (though not for lack of trying) but he will get another opprotunity to do so friday vs. the Islanders. In the meantime, Todd Marchant picked up a shorthanded goal on a broken play by the Blackhawks powerplay. Then Saku Koivu scored the eventual game winner, with Bobby Ryan putting the puck in the empty net in the final minute of the game. Hiller made 38 saves in another stellar performance.
The game wasn’t all smiles. In the third period James Wisniewski laid a vicious high hit on Brent Seabrook that left him dazed and caused him to collapse and left him injured. It was the second time a vicious hit took out a Blackhawks player (Ovechkin on Campbell) from the line up.
Wisniewski now faces a potential suspension for the his since Ovechkin who laid a similar hit received a two game suspension. Wisniewski also fought with former teammate Nik Boyton.
The Ducks will go on to play the New York Islanders on Friday, one of the “easier” games ahead of the schedule. The remaining games will not be easy by any stretch of the imagination, but these two wins certainly will not do anything to hurt their confidence (just a reminder the 3 games up ahead we cannot lose are vs. Calgary, St. Louis, and Dallas not even an OT).
Top performers:
Jonas Hiller 38 saves,
Bobby Ryan 2 goals
Koivu GWG
Sunday, March 14, 2010
Ducks Playoff Chances (One Last Time?)
This from Allducks.com
Ducks current statistical probability of making the playoffs: 0.4%
That is DOWN 0.1% From Yesterday
Record: 30-29-8
Points: 68
Last playoff spot: 78 pts. (Detroit Red Wings)
Pacific Division: 5th last again
Western Conference: 13th
League: 22nd
To have a better than 50% chance, Ducks need: 12-1-2 / .604
To statistically guarantee a playoff spot the Ducks need: 15-0-0 / 100% (98pts)
Games effecting the Ducks today:
Red Team we want to lose.
Numbers show possible increase or decrease in statistical percentage per game.
Possible OT outcomes not displayed, for sake of brevity
Sharks / Ducks
-0.1/0.4
Wild / Blues
-0.02/0.04
Stars / Avs
-0.07/0.07
Drop Dead Number: (Any statistical chance of making the playoffs)
10-4-1 / .700
0.4%...not even one percent chance. Put it in the books folks. If the Ducks fall tonight it's over. If they win but the teams we need to lose win, it's over. So...what do you think, time to tank for Taylor?
Ducks current statistical probability of making the playoffs: 0.4%
That is DOWN 0.1% From Yesterday
Record: 30-29-8
Points: 68
Last playoff spot: 78 pts. (Detroit Red Wings)
Pacific Division: 5th last again
Western Conference: 13th
League: 22nd
To have a better than 50% chance, Ducks need: 12-1-2 / .604
To statistically guarantee a playoff spot the Ducks need: 15-0-0 / 100% (98pts)
Games effecting the Ducks today:
Red Team we want to lose.
Numbers show possible increase or decrease in statistical percentage per game.
Possible OT outcomes not displayed, for sake of brevity
Sharks / Ducks
-0.1/0.4
Wild / Blues
-0.02/0.04
Stars / Avs
-0.07/0.07
Drop Dead Number: (Any statistical chance of making the playoffs)
10-4-1 / .700
0.4%...not even one percent chance. Put it in the books folks. If the Ducks fall tonight it's over. If they win but the teams we need to lose win, it's over. So...what do you think, time to tank for Taylor?
Monday, March 8, 2010
Ducks' chances to make the playoffs.
After the loss to the Canadiens, the Ducks now have a 5.6% chance of making the playoffs.
They need an 11-3-3 record at least, just to have a 50% chance of making it.
They will need a 15-1-1 record to guarantee a spot.
The second seems very unlikely based on the Ducks' play lately. Without a massive turnaround in their gamestyle, the Ducks' chances are bleak.
Their remaining opponents (in order) are:
Blue Jackets
Predators
Sharks
Blackhawks
Islanders
Avalanche
Flames
Canucks
Oilers
Stars
Avalanche
Canucks
Kings
Kings
Stars
Blues
Oilers
Needless to say this is not an easy schedule ahead for the Ducks, if they loose more than 3 it's likely over.
They need an 11-3-3 record at least, just to have a 50% chance of making it.
They will need a 15-1-1 record to guarantee a spot.
The second seems very unlikely based on the Ducks' play lately. Without a massive turnaround in their gamestyle, the Ducks' chances are bleak.
Their remaining opponents (in order) are:
Blue Jackets
Predators
Sharks
Blackhawks
Islanders
Avalanche
Flames
Canucks
Oilers
Stars
Avalanche
Canucks
Kings
Kings
Stars
Blues
Oilers
Needless to say this is not an easy schedule ahead for the Ducks, if they loose more than 3 it's likely over.
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