Mathmatically Speaking

The new numbers give the Ducks a 1.11 chance to make the playoffs based on their latest victories.

That is all mathematically speaking.

If you look at it beyond the math you will see why our chances are higher than that. Firstly, the Ducks are streaking (four straight), They have played 60 minute efforts in each of the past four wins, out of our toughest opponents (including those higher than us in the standings) the Ducks have defeated 3 of the top 8 teams in the west, Teemu got his 600th. Generally, things are looking up for the Ducks.

It isn't over, one win can put the nail in the coffin, but the Ducks are riding the momentum train at the moment and they're riding in style. They fought through key injuries and suspensions to win games (Getzlaf, Ryan, Wisniewski).

Up ahead we do have some challenging teams, but the Ducks found a way to defeat some pretty hot teams.

Our next game vs. Calgary cannot be lost if the Ducks want a chance to sneak in. They can't even go to overtime. The Ducks are 7 points out of the race and Calgary is the closest team to us standings wise.

The Ducks are going to have to keep up the same game style especially since they will play Vancouver and a back to back vs. Los Angeles.

But, the Ducks were on the Brink, and they have shown they will not go down without one hell of a fight.
Teemu Selanne put it perfectly, "As long as we have time, He have hope"

Ducks Playoff Chances (One Last Time?)

This from Allducks.com
Ducks current statistical probability of making the playoffs: 0.4%
That is DOWN 0.1% From Yesterday

Record: 30-29-8
Points: 68
Last playoff spot: 78 pts. (Detroit Red Wings)
Pacific Division: 5th last again
Western Conference: 13th
League: 22nd

To have a better than 50% chance, Ducks need: 12-1-2 / .604


To statistically guarantee a playoff spot the Ducks need: 15-0-0 / 100% (98pts)


Games effecting the Ducks today:

Red Team we want to lose.
Numbers show possible increase or decrease in statistical percentage per game.
Possible OT outcomes not displayed, for sake of brevity


Sharks / Ducks
-0.1/0.4

Wild / Blues
-0.02/0.04

Stars / Avs
-0.07/0.07


Drop Dead Number: (Any statistical chance of making the playoffs)

10-4-1 / .700

0.4%...not even one percent chance. Put it in the books folks. If the Ducks fall tonight it's over. If they win but the teams we need to lose win, it's over. So...what do you think, time to tank for Taylor?

Ducks' chances to make the playoffs.

After the loss to the Canadiens, the Ducks now have a 5.6% chance of making the playoffs.
They need an 11-3-3 record at least, just to have a 50% chance of making it.

They will need a 15-1-1 record to guarantee a spot.

The second seems very unlikely based on the Ducks' play lately. Without a massive turnaround in their gamestyle, the Ducks' chances are bleak.

Their remaining opponents (in order) are:
Blue Jackets
Predators
Sharks
Blackhawks
Islanders
Avalanche
Flames
Canucks
Oilers
Stars
Avalanche
Canucks
Kings
Kings
Stars
Blues
Oilers

Needless to say this is not an easy schedule ahead for the Ducks, if they loose more than 3 it's likely over.