Wednesday, March 24, 2010

What Big Change We Need

This season is going to see a dip in attendence next year, a drop in moral, and a lack of interest by fans, players, and staff.

There are a few things the Ducks can do to re-energize in general.

1.) Get a new coach
Browse through the archives and see why this idea isn't another attack on Carlyle. All the biggest team turnarounds, started with a change in head coaches (SJS, WAS, PHO, LAK,PIT, etc.

2.) Draft a high profile draftee.
It won't help too much, but our prospect pool isn't exactly perfect. Besides, there are a few immediate impact players out there. If we lose all of our upcoming games, we can get a fifth overall or higher (then we can either win the lottery or trade up). I know for sure I would trade Lupul (maybe even one of our top defensive prospects) and my two picks for a top 3 pick in this year's draft. I will have a seperate blog up on Tanking for the draft situations.

3.) Sign a big name FA/Make a blockbuster move (with high talent return)
It always helps put fans back in the seats. And it also gives players renewed confidence in their team's abilities. Unfortunately looking at our cap numbers it doesn't seem too likely that Murray will be signing a big name FA. (There will be a blog up for that too)



So, now that the season is essentially over. A quick overview of what I will be posting from now on.
A multipart work on how the offseason should/will go, as well as all of the information you need and potential scenarios, restrictions, analysis, coverage etc.

Any news that comes up.

A Bobby Ryan contract watch.

Updates on draft position.

There will be all kinds of things posted to keep you interested in the team through the offseason, because I know firsthand how boring it is waiting for the new season

Monday, March 22, 2010

All the latest news

So much has been happening within the Ducks organization lately, I decided that I would recap it all here on this blog.

1.) Defenseman James Wisniewski was suspended for 8 games after injuring Blackhawk Brent Seabrook.

2.) Teemu Selanne scored his 600th goal in his career Sunday vs. the Colorado Avalanche.

3.) The Ducks defeated the Sharks, Blackhawks, Avalanche, and Islanders to gain a four game winning streak and now sit 7 points out of playoff position.

4.) Jonas Hiller finally received his one of a kind goalie mask today, and is expected to don it Tuesday vs. Calgary.

5.) The Ducks signed 3 NCAA players: Jake Newton D, Nick Bonino C, and Rob Bordson LW.

6.) According to sources, The Ducks' next AHL affiliate will be the Syracuse Crunch. To add to the speculation the Crunch is holding a press conference on thursday to make the announcement. This is huge news for the Ducks since we have had our prospects spread out through the AHL and the ECHL. Now they will be easier to track and develop and they will be able to play with each other.

7.) The Ducks have faced a recent injury scare. Selanne looked like he might have been injured, Getzlaf aggravated his previous injury but only missed one game, Koivu took a shot to the face but only required stitches, and Joffrey Lupul is skating with the team again and will go on their upcoming road trip.

That is all for now.

Mathmatically Speaking

The new numbers give the Ducks a 1.11 chance to make the playoffs based on their latest victories.

That is all mathematically speaking.

If you look at it beyond the math you will see why our chances are higher than that. Firstly, the Ducks are streaking (four straight), They have played 60 minute efforts in each of the past four wins, out of our toughest opponents (including those higher than us in the standings) the Ducks have defeated 3 of the top 8 teams in the west, Teemu got his 600th. Generally, things are looking up for the Ducks.

It isn't over, one win can put the nail in the coffin, but the Ducks are riding the momentum train at the moment and they're riding in style. They fought through key injuries and suspensions to win games (Getzlaf, Ryan, Wisniewski).

Up ahead we do have some challenging teams, but the Ducks found a way to defeat some pretty hot teams.

Our next game vs. Calgary cannot be lost if the Ducks want a chance to sneak in. They can't even go to overtime. The Ducks are 7 points out of the race and Calgary is the closest team to us standings wise.

The Ducks are going to have to keep up the same game style especially since they will play Vancouver and a back to back vs. Los Angeles.

But, the Ducks were on the Brink, and they have shown they will not go down without one hell of a fight.
Teemu Selanne put it perfectly, "As long as we have time, He have hope"

Sunday, March 21, 2010

The Road to 600 is Over

Ducks history was made tonight, and everyone has collectively breathed a sigh of relief.

With the Ducks on the powerplay vs. Colorado, Craig Anderson was sprawled on the ice. The puck bounced to Scott Niedermayer who passed it to Selanne. Teemu had a wide open net to bury the puck in which he did.

The entire Ducks bench (after requesting permission to do so from the NHL) exploded off the bench to celebrate with their teammate.
The image is one that will be remembered (at least by me) forever by Ducks fans.

This isn't the first milestone goal Teemu Selanne has scored against the Avalanche.
He scored his 500th goal against them as well.

Teemu's gear used to score the goal will be sent directly to the Hockey Hall of Fame (can anyone really make an argument that he won't be inducted?).

Teemu only needs one goal to tie his childhood Finnish idol and former Duck Jarri Kurri.

Thursday, March 18, 2010

Ducks-Blackhawks 4-2

Who saw that one coming?
Few would put money on the Ducks to beat San Jose, few would put money on them to beat Chicago. But to beat both? The economy is a bit too troubled these days to risk money on such crazy ventures.

But the Ducks did it. They stepped up in both games (like they should have been doing all along) and beat the two best teams in the Western Conference to, in a sense give themselves a chance to pull off what a couple days ago was almost impossible (0.4% chance to make the playoffs).

The Ducks played the Chicago Blackhawks last night on St. Patrick's day (also Bobby Ryan's birthday). Playing what could have been the most essential game on the schedule.
And they rose to the occasion once again.

The win came without Anaheim's top line center, Ryan Getzlaf, who, unlike Selanne, was not cleared to play. But, as required at this time of year, the Ducks stepped up their game and gave a winning effort.

Bobby Ryan scored two goals that night (30, 31) making it back to back 30 goal seasons for the young scorer. Only two other Ducks have that distinction and they are widely considered the team's all time best forwards (Teemu Selanne and Paul Kariya). He is also the first Duck to get back to back 30 goal seasons in a player's rookie and sophomore year.

Teemu Selanne did not reach number 600 (though not for lack of trying) but he will get another opprotunity to do so friday vs. the Islanders. In the meantime, Todd Marchant picked up a shorthanded goal on a broken play by the Blackhawks powerplay. Then Saku Koivu scored the eventual game winner, with Bobby Ryan putting the puck in the empty net in the final minute of the game. Hiller made 38 saves in another stellar performance.

The game wasn’t all smiles. In the third period James Wisniewski laid a vicious high hit on Brent Seabrook that left him dazed and caused him to collapse and left him injured. It was the second time a vicious hit took out a Blackhawks player (Ovechkin on Campbell) from the line up.

Wisniewski now faces a potential suspension for the his since Ovechkin who laid a similar hit received a two game suspension. Wisniewski also fought with former teammate Nik Boyton.

The Ducks will go on to play the New York Islanders on Friday, one of the “easier” games ahead of the schedule. The remaining games will not be easy by any stretch of the imagination, but these two wins certainly will not do anything to hurt their confidence (just a reminder the 3 games up ahead we cannot lose are vs. Calgary, St. Louis, and Dallas not even an OT).
Top performers:
Jonas Hiller 38 saves,
Bobby Ryan 2 goals
Koivu GWG

Wednesday, March 17, 2010

Ducks-Blackhawks: Do or Die?

The Ducks pulled off a huge win against the West's best in their last game against the San Jose Sharks.

Very few people expected them to win that game, I was one of them. So I have gone from losing all hope in the season, to thinking that there could be a shot.

In our remaining games, no other opponent is going to be tougher. If we were able to beat San Jose we should be able to fight for a win tonight.

If Anaheim wants to make the playoffs, they cannot lose more than two games at the very least. If they want any kind of chance to be mentally prepared for that kind of comeback, they must win this game.
It is the last tool we have in our regular season arsenal.

Defeating the Sharks and the Blackhawks back to back will give the Ducks the faith, the confidence, and the drive they need to squirt their way into that final spot. They will go up against teams like L.A and Vancouver and Calgary and they will have confidence in their ability to play those teams. But they need the win, this game probably feels like a game 7 to the guys.
They know how important this game is, and they will show up to play.

Chicago is a tough opponent.
They don't play the same passing, high pressure game that San Jose and Detroit play. But they have the speed to blister past defensive corps and score goals before the goalie has time to react.
The ducks need to keep the puck away from The Hawks and play tight Defense.

Getzlaf and Selanne, who previously suffered injuries against the sharks are expected to be in the line-up tonight.
Potential Goaltenders will be Hiller for Anaheim and Niemi for Chicago.

Players to watch Anaheim: Teemu Selanne, Bobby Ryan , Jonas Hiller
(#600?)
(Wants #30 on his birthday)
(will play desperately to keep the Ducks in the game)

Chicago: Kane, Toews, Niemi

Monday, March 15, 2010

Not Done Yet

The Ducks pulled off something last night that no one was expecting. They didn't just beat (dominated is more fitting) the San Jose Sharks 4-2. Well, maybe it wasn't domination, but the Ducks played their game, they played a full 60 minute game where they did not allow San Jose outplay them. This could be a great sign of things to come, and the Ducks last night showed that they are not finished.

But, the ice they are skating on is paper thin. They still have a difficult schedule up ahead, and every point is important. Especially against teams who are also in the hunt. They quite literally can't afford to even lose in overtime in those games. Every point counts.

Getzlaf and Selanne suffered injuries in the game. Getzlaf flared up his former injury and is thankfully day-to-day. Selanne ran into the boards (stalling his chances to get #600)and will run some tests today to check the severity of the injury.

To recap the game, Jonas Hiller put up a great 42 save performance, Perry, Selanne, Ryan, and Visnovsky scored.

The win last night addressed the issue of tanking for Taylor last night. They are obviously not going to do that (yet) and are going to try to pull off the mathmatically almost impossible and make the playoffs. So we can expect lower draft picks this year, whether we make the playoffs or miss them.

The Ducks can do it, there is no doubt. But they need to keep playing the same way they played last night, or better if possible. They need to play 60 minutes every night, sacraficing their bodies to get as many points as possible. The defense needs to help Hiller out, Hiller needs to play like he's in the olympics again, The big line needs to keep contributing, and the bottom 3 lines need to play as well as they can and do everything to keep the puck out of their net and put it into the opponent's.

New playoff odds from ALLDUCKS.com
As of Monday, March 15th, 2010

All Information Derived From sportsclubstats.com and nhl.com

------------------------------

Ducks current statistical probability of making the playoffs: 0.9%
That is UP 0.5% From Yesterday

Record: 31-29-8
Points: 70
Last playoff spot: 78 pts. (Detroit Red Wings)
Pacific Division: 5th
Western Conference: 13th
League: 22nd

To have a better than 50% chance, Ducks need: 11-1-2 or 12-2-0 / .857


To statistically guarantee a playoff spot the Ducks need: 14-0-0 / 100% (98pts)


Games effecting the Ducks today:

Red Team we want to lose.
Numbers show possible increase or decrease in statistical percentage per game.
Possible OT outcomes not displayed, for sake of brevity


Flames / Red Wings
-0.01/0.03



Drop Dead Number: (Any statistical chance of making the playoffs)

8-3-3 or 9-4-1 / .679

Sunday, March 14, 2010

Ducks Playoff Chances (One Last Time?)

This from Allducks.com
Ducks current statistical probability of making the playoffs: 0.4%
That is DOWN 0.1% From Yesterday

Record: 30-29-8
Points: 68
Last playoff spot: 78 pts. (Detroit Red Wings)
Pacific Division: 5th last again
Western Conference: 13th
League: 22nd

To have a better than 50% chance, Ducks need: 12-1-2 / .604


To statistically guarantee a playoff spot the Ducks need: 15-0-0 / 100% (98pts)


Games effecting the Ducks today:

Red Team we want to lose.
Numbers show possible increase or decrease in statistical percentage per game.
Possible OT outcomes not displayed, for sake of brevity


Sharks / Ducks
-0.1/0.4

Wild / Blues
-0.02/0.04

Stars / Avs
-0.07/0.07


Drop Dead Number: (Any statistical chance of making the playoffs)

10-4-1 / .700

0.4%...not even one percent chance. Put it in the books folks. If the Ducks fall tonight it's over. If they win but the teams we need to lose win, it's over. So...what do you think, time to tank for Taylor?

Friday, March 12, 2010

The Benefit of a New Coach

I'm not blasting Carlyle all you Carlyle lovers. I was always opposed to getting a new coach. I really appreciate what Carlyle has done for this club. But if you look at the players, they are sick of him. They are weary of the same old system and they are playing subpar for him. That's why there isn't the right kind of passion or intensity. Even Bobby looks drained compared to last year. The team doesn't care.

Look at all the success stories out there in the NHL.
Washington
Pittsburgh
San Jose
Los Angeles
Phoenix

When did they start being good?
1.) When they brought in talented players.
2.) When they brought in a new coach.

We have the talent.
But we have a stale coach.

The Ducks as a team need some reinvigoration, a new fire, something that will bring back the passion and intensity.
Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. And we're getting different results (getting worse and worse) while getting the same mediocrity. Our lineup has gotten deeper and deeper each year. But the deeper we make our lineup, the deeper we sink in the standings.

And the line juggling, that is something I will have to attack Carlyle for. Players can never hope to form chemistry if they only play with a line for a few shifts. He doesn't wait for the chemistry to form he assumes it has to happen rapidly.

He doesn't know how to motivate his club, he doesn't know how to change their mentality. He even admitted that he doesn't know what to say to his team anymore! What coach says that? What coach just runs out of things to say. If you're sick of saying the same thing, say something else. Speaking of insanity. He also can't get his team to play a full 60 minutes. The story of the past few seasons has been: "a dominating first period by anaheim. Oh Anaheim was almost invisible in the second. Then, The ducks looked lost until a desperate attack with 5 minutes left" The sitting back method has been the cause of at least half our losses the last 3 seasons.

You watch, if we do end up getting a new coach it will be the best thing for us. And we can keep Carlyle as defensive coach (since he is a Norris Trophy winner) until he finds a new team to coach for, and he will probably do a good job with that team (as I remember Tippet was coach of the Stars and was fired, but is now the coach of the season in many people's eyes).

It would be a win-win for both sides.

Thursday, March 11, 2010

Proof for the Believers

Before the loss to Columbus, we were at a 5.6% chance to make the playoffs. After that loss we now stand at 2.3% chance to make the playoffs. Where are the believers now? A comeback with those odds never happens.

Tuesday, March 9, 2010

The Bitter (unofficial) End

Well,
It's here.
The day no Duck fan ever thought would come.

The past four seasons, Anaheim has made (and found general success in) the NHL playoffs. I won't say this year it won't happen, because it is not a guarantee.

Statistically,
they have a shot. A shot in the dark. But the target is still in range.

Realistically,
If they couldn't beat Columbus, they will not beat a good number of the teams out there that we have yet to face.

So therefore all hope is gone. It's over. To all the naysayers and believers out there, get used to it. This isn't our year. Not even close. No chance. The best thing we can hope for now is that Anaheim and Philadelphia will lose a majority of their remaining games so that we can draft high. In all honesty that's all the rest of this season is good for (that and Teemu's 600th).

This isn't the end of the world, this isn't the beggining of a long period of mediocrity (similar to the pre 09-10 L.A. Kings). No, Anaheim has a good squad and a good core. Things just went wrong this season (I'll have a seperate blog detailing them). There are problems that will need to be addressed in the offseason, players that will not return, etc. The team that you see today will look vastly different come Game 1 10-11 season (again another blog I will write). But they will bounce back, whatever changes are made, the Ducks will bounce back. We will not see a repeat of this mediocre season.

You can expect fewer fans will be filling the seats next season, and that is a very good reason why the 2010-2011 team will fight every game. To make up for this season, and to bring back fans.

I myself wanted to come on and write the hockey equivalent of an Emo boy's poetry about the effects of tonight's game. I wanted to write about every macabre, morose, aggravating truth about this season in this post. But...
There is no sense in it.
In the minutes that have passed since I started writing, I have accepted the failures and misfortunes of this season, and have began the process of thinking what the Ducks must do looking forward to rebound from this terrible showing.

Now we must watch what unfolds the remaining 16 games of the 2009-2010 season.
1.) Will the Ducks pull the biggest comeback in NHL regular season history?
2.) What spots will Anaheim recieve in the draft?
3.) Will Teemu Selanne reach 600+ goals?

That is all that would really keep us watching at this point.

Even though it is a bit premature, I would like to thank all the Ducks fans for following and sticking by the Ducks through this rough season, and that I sincerely hope you will be there for the next one.

The Stretch: Ducks vs Blue Jackets preview

The Ducks will play the Columbus Blue Jackets tonight in a game that could effectively end any hopes the Ducks have of making the playoffs. The Jackets are one of the easier teams we will face in the remaining 17 contests. Keep in mind the ducks can only lose 3 in regulation to have any kind of postseason hopes. Whatever is missing from the team after the break needs to be found tonight if they want to put together the kind of streak necessary to make the playoffs. Let s hope for a good 60 effort that will change the mentality. Probable starting goaltenders: ANA Jonas Hiller CBJ Steve Mason Players to watch: Nash, Ryan, Getzlaf.

Monday, March 8, 2010

Ducks' chances to make the playoffs.

After the loss to the Canadiens, the Ducks now have a 5.6% chance of making the playoffs.
They need an 11-3-3 record at least, just to have a 50% chance of making it.

They will need a 15-1-1 record to guarantee a spot.

The second seems very unlikely based on the Ducks' play lately. Without a massive turnaround in their gamestyle, the Ducks' chances are bleak.

Their remaining opponents (in order) are:
Blue Jackets
Predators
Sharks
Blackhawks
Islanders
Avalanche
Flames
Canucks
Oilers
Stars
Avalanche
Canucks
Kings
Kings
Stars
Blues
Oilers

Needless to say this is not an easy schedule ahead for the Ducks, if they loose more than 3 it's likely over.

First post ever :)

Hello Ducks fans,
The reason I have started this blog is my brain works at a million miles a minute, and a lot of it is focused on the Ducks. And seeing as how Twitter is designed for short points, I have decided to make this. One small reminder. This isn't like all the other Ducks blogs out there. Just like my Twitter, I will not be reporting on every bit of news, or every game, or everything dedicated to the Ducks. There is enough of that out there. I am going to give my opinions, my thoughts, and open discussion on whatever I feel like relating to the Ducks. Meaning instead of posting about the same stuff every other blog posts about (with the same info) I will give you a fresh new outlook on things and topics pertaining to the Ducks. I'll post the links to the blog with every new post on Twitter so you can read my two cents. I do hope you enjoy this blog as I do not want to be writing here for no good reason.
Looking forward to posting here soon.