Tuesday, February 22, 2011

The Home stretch: Race for the Cup

First blog in quite some time here. Most of what I would have blogged about has been put into tweets anyway.

We all know the Ducks are poised to make the playoffs this year, after missing last year's big game. Hopefully everyone is aware of how tight the Western playoff race is this year. If you don't, to give you an idea: the Ducks were one win away from being 3rd in the west. 3 pretty brutal losses later, they find themselves 10th in the West. They are also one of 5 teams that have 68 points. 

22 games now remain in the Ducks season. Like it or not, this is the final stretch. In a western conference where every game counts, the Ducks must either step up, or falter once again.

Sportsclubstats tell us how many points are needed to make the playoffs. 93 points=a 53.4% chance to make the playoffs, 94 points=77.7%, 95=92.6% 96=98.3 97=99.8 98 points and higher mean making the playoffs are a certainty. The site also says that to win the Pacific division they will need at least 102 points, and 107 points to clinch it. The Ducks, at the present time are on pace for 93 points.

Below is an expanded breakdown of records from this point to get to a certain point total.

95 points.     96 points.   97 points
12-7-3        13-7-2.     13-6-3
11-6-5        12-6-4.      12-5-5
10-5-7        11-5-6.      11-4-7
9-4-9.          10-4-8.      10-3-8

98 points      99 points.    100 pts.    
14-6-2.        14-5-3.      15-5-2.     
13-5-4.        13-4-5.      14-4-4.     
12-4-6.        12-3-7.      13-3-6.     
11-3-7.        11-2-8.      12-2-8.     

Ducks have 22 games left. 21 vs Teams in the west. 10 vs. Pacific teams. 

Remaining schedule+record vs team
LAK 1-1-0 
MIN 1-1-1 
COL 1-0-0  
DET 0-3-0
DAL 2-1-0
VAN 2-0-1
NYR 0-0-0
COL 1-0-0
PHO 3-2-0
STL 1-2-1
LAK 1-1-0
CGY 2-0-0
DAL 2-1-0
NAS 1-2-1
CHI   1-1-1
COL.  1-0-0
CGY. 2-0-0
SJS 2-2-0
DAL 2-1-0
SJS 2-2-0
LAK 1-1-0
LAK 1-1-0

Of all the losses the Ducks have been in, only 4 were not in regulation. The Ducks have now pushed enough losses to overtime, that is why other teams in the West have an advantage over them. If they want to make the playoffs, even if they just barely skate in (2010 Philadelphia Flyers style) they will need to ensure that if they cannot come on top they need to try to pull at least one point out of games. They need to continue to find ways to win. No matter what deviation of required records you run, almost every time the wins outweigh the losses acceptable. Each facet of the team must rise to the occasion, the defense, the offense, and the goaltending. Getting lucky wins can get you into the playoffs, but you need to know how to really win once you get there. 

They have 22 games to get it together. They have 22 games to solidify their team identity. They have 22 games to make amends for last season's failures. They have 22 games to earn their ticket to the big show. The rest of the season is now behind us. That portion of the year put us in contention. The race for the cup starts now.

1 comment:

  1. Thats a hell of a schedule to have to battle through to make it to the playoffs. There isnt one team there that I would say is a "gimme" by any means.

    With the current goalie situation, or lack there of, it only makes things that much harder. Boob Murray doesnt seem to be that concerned with the goalie situation and has even said he thinking McBackup still deserves a chance to redeem himself but in 3 games he has allowed 16 goals, an average of 5.3 GA a game.

    Either Hiller needs to come back (duh) or something needs to be done in goal, such as Emery. He is a NHL caliber goalie who has 37 saves in the 2nd night of back-to-back games. Granted he has been out a full year and his first game back allowed 4 goals but right now I'm not sure that they can afford the 5.3 GA that McBackup has been giving up.

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